Everyone in the cryptocurrency space is watching bitcoin price action right now – it seems likely that the recent price surge has marked a trend reversal – but some, like the UBS analyst Kevin Dennean, believe it will take much longer than the bulls think to reach an all time high of $20,000 per coin again – perhaps even 22 years.
Kevin Dennean is a research analyst for the international bank UBS, based in Switzerland. He strongly believes that the cryptocurrency bulls look at other bubbles as a map for bitcoin’s recovery, “The argument here is that bitcoin has gone through its bubble phase and is ready to rise phoenix-like from the ashes just as other assets and indices did in the past,”
Bitcoin’s rise back up to $20,000 may take far longer than people believe
But looking to other markets, Dennean shows that recoveries can take far, far longer than most people believe. Some markets can take decades to recover, and he points to the Dow Jones Industrials which took a massive 22 years to get back on pace.
“We’re struck by how long it took other asset bubbles to recover their peak levels (as long as 22 years for the Dow Jones Industrials) and how pedestrian the annualized returns from trough to the recovery often are,”
Dennean cites many examples across all asset classes, and gives evidence that of those assets that collapsed more than 75% from their peaks, only two recovered to their previous levels.
Other experts have a different take on bitcoin price action over the next two years
Others, however, have a different take. Arthur Hayes, the CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMex, believes that bitcoin will easily reach $10,000 USD this year, while Peter Brandt believes the leading cryptocurrency could pass its previous all time high within two years, and attain a massive value of $50,000 per coin.